HEALTH OF WOMAN. 2016.6(112):33–35 
 

Prediction obstetric complications in women with viral Epstein–Barr infection 
 

Pekar A. Yu., Mitsoda R. M., Krasnov V. V.

SHEE «Uzhgorod national University»

Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Kiev

Actual problems of modern medicine – a viral infection of the Epstein-Barr (EBV infection), which is the most common and most contagious viral infection, which infected up to 60% of children and almost 100% of adults.

The purpose of research: the development of methods to predict obstetric complications in women with EBV infection.

Material and methods. In order to develop a mathematical model predicting obstetric complications using the results of surveys of 106 pregnant women, including 71 women with reactivation of EBV infection and 35 women with latent EBV infection, which amounted to a control group. Used the method of graphic representation and expert analysis.

Results. State of the mother and the fetus was evaluated based on the amount of points. For every woman counted the amount of points. Was established a clear 
relationship between the magnitude of the amount of points and likely risk of obstetric complications. If the sum of 1.02 points to the likelihood of obstetric complications was about 0%; from 1.02 to 3.74 points – 30%; from 3.74 to 6.50 points – 50%; from 6.50 to 8.40 points – 70%; from 8.40 to 11.26 points – 90%; 11.26 more points – more than 90%. Using the method of least squares possible to obtain the following model prediction of occurrence of obstetric complications: where y – the probability of obstetric complications, and x – total score of risk. Further results of clinical trials for the examination sample (n=106) showed high accuracy of correct forecasts regarding the likelihood of obstetric complications in women with EBV infection.

Conclusion. The developed technique allows high sensitivity and specificity to predict the risk of obstetric complications in women with EBV infection.

Key words: virus Epstein–Barr, pregnancy, obstetric complications, prediction.

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