• Basic principles and structure forecasting technique miscarriage in women carriers of HSV and CMV
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Basic principles and structure forecasting technique miscarriage in women carriers of HSV and CMV

HEALTH OF WOMAN. 2016.2(108):168–171; doi 10.15574/HW.2016.108.168 
 

Basic principles and structure forecasting technique miscarriage in women carriers of HSV and CMV


Mitsoda R. M., Krasnov V. V., Sadygov Y. M.

SHEE «Uzhgorod national University»

National medical Academy of postgraduate education P. L. Shupyk, Kyiv

Transcarpathian regional clinical hospital named after A. Novak, Uzhgorod


The aim of the study: а method for predicting miscarriage in women carriers of HSV and CMV.


Materials and methods. Used: the method of graphical display – Histogram, and expert analysis method. In developing a mathematical model predicting miscarriage participated group of healthy women (n1=50) and a group of women with a history of miscarriage (group forecasting) who were carriers of HSV and CMV (n2=150). Reliability differences between the groups on a number of clinical signs was performed using the parametric method – t-test for independent St’yudenta (unrelated) groups.


Research results. Prognostic significance of factors studied by N.A. Amosovym et al. (1975). Forecasting system was carried out on 200 observations in women with miscarriage. For mapping and subsequent risk of only selected features, prognostic significance of which exceeded 1.96 points. The weight status of women who want to conceive, evaluated based on the amount of points. For each woman counted amount of points. Was established a clear relationship between the size of the total score and the probability of missed risk of pregnancy. So, when the point total to 4 of missed likelihood of pregnancy was about 0%; from 4 to 4.17 points – 30%; from 4.18 to 7.75 points – 50%; from 7.76 to 15.91 points – 70%; from 15.92 to 31.92 points – 90%; 31.93 more points – more than 90%. Using the least squares method allowed us to obtain the following model forecast of missed abortion could: where y – the probability of missed development pregnancy and c – total score of risk. As subsequent results of clinical trials for the examination sample (n=200), a relatively high accuracy of correct forecasts regarding the likelihood of miscarriage (more than 90%, equal distribution point 24.08) suggests the possibility of a treatment process developed forecasting models (sensitivity model is reduced to 0.55, with high specificity).


Conclusion. Factors found and defined distribution model enable high sensitivity and specificity to predict the likelihood of pregnancy in women of missed in the early stages of pregnancy.


Key words: forecasting, miscarriage, carriers of HCV and CMV.


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